Monthly Archives: September 2014

How Accurate is the Universal Tennis Rating System?

I have blogged about the Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) System before (Ratings vs. Rankings)  and I believe it is an unmatched tool for coaches, players, and parents to accurately see just how good they really are in comparison with everyone from professional players across the world to anyone in your backyard.  I know many college coaches are using UTR to evaluate how a player would fit into their line-up, top collegiate players are using it to see if pro tennis is a dream they should attempt to pursue, and junior players are using it as the measuring stick to see if they really are improving at a faster rate than their peers.

With the all the undeniable valuable surrounding UTR people still ask, “How accurate can the Universal Tennis Rating System really be?”

Well just this week I did a case study of my own to answer that very question using the results of the Pennsylvania AAA State High School Singles Qualifying Tournament here in Western, PA.  Once the tournaments concluded and all finals results were published I logged into UTR and looked up the ratings of every single player who attempted to qualify.  I put each player’s rating number next to their name on the draw sheets and looked to see if the actual results mirrored what each player’s respective UTRs were.  What I discovered in doing this was nothing short of amazing!

In AAA High School Tennis in Western, PA there are 4 conferences or sections.  Each section holds a singles qualifying tournament in which the top 4 players in each (16 total) move onto the next round where they square off to complete and qualify for the state tournament.

In looking at each player’s UTRs in the 4 section tournaments the outcomes mirrored the UTR ratings perfectly.  In all of the section tournaments the player with the highest UTR finished 1st, second highest UTR 2nd and so on.  The correlation between actual results and UTRs were beyond coincidence!

Section 1

Section 1

Section 2

Section 2

Section 3

Section 3

Section 4

Section 4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was intrigued so I continued my case study on to the next qualifying round.  The second qualifying rounded consisted of a tournament where the 16 best high school tennis players in Western, PA square off to qualify for the State Championship Tournament.  I thought if anywhere the Universal Rating System would not predict results would be here where players are so closely matched.  Out of all 16 matches played in the entire tournament 14 of them mirrored results the UTR ratings would have predicted.

Qualifying Championships

Qualifying Championships

So what about the 2 matches where the lesser rated player won?  This must mean UTR is not accurate, right?

Well, what I discovered in these two matches supported the accuracy of the Universal Rating System even more.  The first match in which the lesser rated player won had a margin of 0.04 difference between the two competitors.  The second match had a difference of 0.27.  I think It is pretty safe to say these players were very evenly matched and neither was the favorite.  What was even more interesting was the same player was involved in both of those matches, signifying that perhaps this was a breakthrough tournament for her.

After closely looking at the UTRs of players in a competitive tournament setting it just reaffirms to me how accurate it is.  I’ll be continuing this experiment in a few weeks by looking at the Universal Ratings of all the players who will be competing in the Pennsylvania State Singles Tournament in a few weeks.  Stay tuned for the findings…


Stop Chasing Points & Start Chasing Ratings

“The moment a player starts worrying about their ranking the is moment they stop improving” is a wise old tennis saying because it is true.  As soon as a young athlete begins focusing on what they are ranked instead of improving 1% each time they train or compete they lose focus of the long-term process.  They end up with a fixed mindset versus a growth mindset and development comes to a grinding halt.

Allow me to paint a picture about our current junior tennis landscape.  The points per round and ranking system in USTA junior tennis looks really good on paper, after all it is exactly what the ATP and WTA tours are doing.  The problem is children are smart and they know the most important thing is the points they earn and the ensuing ranking they get because it is ultimately what qualifies them for bigger tournaments.  And like I said before this all looks good in theory but the problem is the players are not chasing improvement instead they are chasing points because that is what they are rewarded for.  They start looking for ways to manipulate the system and a big disparity comes into play because some players simply have the means to travel and play lots of tournaments thus have more opportunity to earn points.  I hope the bigger picture is starting to become clear.  And I want to go on record as saying that I am not against rankings because they have their place and purpose but there is a much better way to measure just how good you are…

The best way to measure how good you are is with a rating.  To be specific a Universal Tennis Rating (UTR).  I have blogged in depth about the Universal Tennis Rating System before and its benefits.  The biggest benefit is that the only way to improve your UTR is to chase improvement and prove those gains in competitive match play.  If every player was focused on improving their own unique UTR they would have a growth mindset and look at every single time they take the court as a way to improve just 1%.  And as Coach John Wooden says, “a bunch of small improvements eventually add up to be a big improvement.”

IMG_1890

So players, parents and coaches out their stop chasing points and start focusing on improving your rating.  And If you do that you will certainly be on the right track to truly becoming the best you can be.